GDP Growth: Actual 2018 & Foracast 2019

Real GDP growth in 2018 Q4 reached 6.9% which is the highest rate since 2014. International organizations are expecting a positive outlook for Mongolia’s economy in 2019 with low difference in GDP Growth forecast.

Macro Environment

  • External demand for coal and increase of commodity prices has increased government inflow and boosted the economy overall. Based on better performance of coal exports and stronger private consumption in recent years, economic outlook is posed with upward trend.
    • Mongolia coal exports hit an all-time high in 2018 as stated by the Ministry of Finance. Coal export was a total of 36.5 Million tons in 2018 which is an increase of 9.6% compared to previous year’s 33.3 Million tons of coal export.
    • The country has set a goal to increase exports to 40 Million tons of coal in the coming year.
  • Despite GDP growth foreign exchange rate plunged several times. USD rate increased by 7.5 percent YoY in November 2018 against MNT. As a result of the MNT depreciation, the Central Bank had to increase its policy rate up to 11% from 10% in November 2018.